Deteriorated Situations for June: Somalia, Somaliland, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Nigeria, Papua New Guinea, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Tunisia
Improved Situations for June: Eritrea, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Korean Peninsula, Macedonia
Conflict Risk Alerts for July: Somalia, Somaliland, Syria, Yemen
Resolution Opportunities for July: Eritrea, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Yemen
Global Overview June 2018: In June, Yemeni forces backed by the United Arab Emirates accelerated their offensive to take the Huthi-held city of Hodeida. A fleeting opportunity exists to find a mediated settlement and avoid prolonged urban warfare. In Syria, pro-government forces intensified efforts to retake territory in the south west, risking worse violence in July, while in Libya, new fighting over oil facilities aggravated tensions. The conflict between Somalia’s Puntland and Somaliland spread, and looks set to escalate; attacks linked to Nigeria’s farmer-herder conflict left over 200 dead; and radical Islamists in Mozambique stepped up attacks. The month saw heightened political rivalry in Tunisia, and election-related violence in Zimbabwe and Papua New Guinea. High-level engagement between North Korea and the U.S. paved the way for a diplomatic process, and Macedonia and Greece reached an agreement on their name dispute. Opportunities to advance peace opened up in Africa with Ethiopia and Eritrea taking tentative steps to address their border dispute, and South Sudan’s warring leaders signing an initial framework agreement.
International Crisis Group: https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch