Deteriorated Situations: Burkina, Faso, Burundi, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, North Macedonia, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Libya
Conflict Risk Alerts: Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Guinea-Bissau, Syria, Iraq
In October, Turkey launched a major offensive against Kurdish-led forces in Syria’s north east and, though fighting eased mid-month, it could escalate again in coming weeks. In Libya, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar stepped up airstrikes on forces allied to the UN-backed government and civilian targets.
The Yemeni government and southern separatists have a precious opportunity in November to strike a deal and stem hostilities in the south. Political protests paralysed Lebanon and led to deadly violence in Iraq, Ethiopia and Guinea, as well as in the Andes region in Bolivia, Chile and Ecuador.
Mexico’s government faced a political crisis following a series of high-profile violent incidents.
The European Council’s widely-criticised decision not to open formal accession talks was a setback for North Macedonia. Sudan’s government and armed groups made headway in talks. In contrast, South Sudan’s peace deal could collapse and violence resume if President Salva Kiir makes good on his pledge to form a government by 12 November despite objections by rebel leader Riek Machar. Tensions rose in Mozambique as the opposition rejected election results and fighting intensified in the north.
Security in both northern Burkina Faso and western Burundi deteriorated, and violence could escalate in eastern DR Congo as the army ramps up its new offensive against armed groups. Guinea-Bissau faced new instability as President José Mário Vaz dissolved the government, raising the risk of protests and violent repression by security forces around November’s presidential polls.