Continuing Conflicts That Create Refugees – October 2019

Deteriorated Situations: Burkina Faso, Mali, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Somalia, Afghanistan, Indonesia, Venezuela, Haiti, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Egypt

Conflict Risk Alerts: Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Tunisia

Resolution Opportunities: None

In September, U.S. President Trump suspended talks with the Taliban, curtailing prospects for peace in Afghanistan, while an attack on Saudi oil facilities prompted a sharp rise in tensions between Riyadh and Washington on one side and Iran on the other. Cross-border attacks between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Huthis could multiply unless they agree on steps to de-escalate. In Egypt and Algeria, security forces cracked down on opposition protests, and Tunisia’s second round of presidential polls could stir tensions. Violence around protests in Indonesia’s Papua left at least 30 dead. Al-Shabaab stepped up attacks in Somalia, violence between armed groups rose in the Central African Republic, security forces increased attacks in Cameroon’s Anglophone areas, and intercommunal conflict deepened in central Mali. In October, insecurity could rise in eastern DR Congo, northern Burkina Faso, Malawi and Mozambique. Talks between Venezuela’s government and opposition fell apart, and Haiti’s political crisis gave way to more violence. In Sudan, the appointment of a new cabinet consolidated a power-sharing deal and imminent talks between the government and armed opposition groups are an opportunity to advance peace in the peripheries.

International Crisis Group: https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch